Marana, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS65 KTWC 012216
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
316 PM MST Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving across the area through Monday
will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight
into Monday morning. Another chance of showers on Tuesday with dry
conditions returning to the area on Wednesday. High temperatures
will be below normal to start the work week then warm to above
normal by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Widely scattered showers/isolated thunderstorm so
far today as the upper low off northern Baja was slow to eject.
Over the past couple of hours, the low has started to eject per
last water vapor imagery. Dynamics from this system will act on
tropical moisture that has advected across the area in the past
12 hours. The 18z Tucson sounding has PW of 1.22" while SPC
analysis showing up to 1.70" moving Yuma county and wrn Pima
county. With the PW values forecast to be 250%-325% of normal and
the dynamics coming in, still looking at widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorm with a few heavy rainers and training storms
into tonight from Tucson west. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
across SE Pinal, Pima and Santa Cruz counties. Latest HRRR runs
keep activity going past midnight for Tucson east.

Overnight showers will continue, but rain amounts will be on the
lighter side as the upper low weakens and moves northeastward
towards the Four Corners. During this time PWAT values also begin
to decrease, although they will still be above normal for this
time of year. As synoptic scale forcing decreases shower activity
will decrease from west to east Monday with additional rainfall
amounts up to 0.25". High temperatures today and Monday will be
moderated by the moisture and cloud cover with Tucson possibly
seeing sub 90 degree highs both days.

Monday: Remaining unsettled as the low opens up while moving
across the state. Up to 30% chance of showers/isolated t-storms
with highs below normal.

Tuesday: Follow-up weather system will keep conditions unsettled
especially north of Tucson for a slight chance of showers.

Wednesday thru Friday: Significant drying takes place with high
temperatures warming up to several degrees above normal by Friday.

Next week: Dry and hot and subtropical high strengthens over NW
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA thru much of valid pd. Brief MVFR cigs
with +SHRA thru 12/09z. SWLY/SLY winds 8-15 kts thru much of
valid pd. Isold gusts to 30-40 kts near any TS that develop.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue across the area into tomorrow morning before
decreasing from west to east on Monday. Rain could be heavy at
times leading to possible debris flows over new area burn scars.
Overall winds remain light but gusty and erratic winds would occur
with any thunderstorm activity. Another weather system moves
through Tuesday with a slight chance for precip north of Tucson
along with breezy winds. Thereafter expect dry and warming
conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch until 5 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ501-502-515.

 Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ503>507-513-514.

&&

$$

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